Forex – Dun & Bradstreet, whose activities are carried out within the CRIF cluster in Turkey, has announced its “Global Economic Outlook Report”. Contrary to recent expectations, Dun & Bradstreet’s report for 2024 does not foresee a recession in the global economy. The “Global Economic Outlook Report” announced by Dun & Bradstreet emphasized that global GDP growth, which is expected to be 2.5 percent this year, is expected to increase to 2.8 percent in 2025. The report warns that “Although risks appear to be becoming more stable, there are also factors that prevent recoveries in some economies.”
The report signed by Dun & Bradstreet Chief Economist Dr. Arun Singh shared the information that despite the slowdown in growth in the US, they have optimistic expectations for global growth due to growth in Europe and emerging markets. The report, which states that a soft landing and slow growth are expected in the US, says, “The Dun & Bradstreet Global Business Optimism Index report for Q3 2024 also supports our view of a soft landing in the US and continued growth in Western Europe. Indeed, the report in question reveals that business optimism is increasing worldwide. Our Global Business Optimism Index showed a balanced upward trend throughout the year, indicating that businesses are sufficiently attuned to the challenges of 2024. While recoveries in Western Europe and some emerging economies gained strength throughout the year, global growth now appears less dependent on the US than it was at the beginning of 2024.”
“We do not expect a recession in the US”
The report, which draws attention to the slowdown in global inflation, underlines that this situation creates difficulties for governments, policy makers such as central banks and companies. The report, which states that the slowdown in global growth in the face of policies implemented for targeted inflation increases the need to support countries’ economies, emphasizes that growth issues are being overcome with a real shift from tight monetary policy to loose monetary policy, which has been followed in recent years. The report states that “the impact of weaker than expected macroeconomic and labor market information in the US has increased expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will reduce interest rates this year. The FED, which did not change interest rates at its July meeting,
“It has signaled that it may begin cutting rates at its next meeting in September. Despite rising expectations of a recession in the U.S., Dun & Bradstreet still expects a soft landing and slower economic growth without a significant recession.”
Lower interest rates will support EU recovery in the second half
The report, which stated that the European Central Bank (ECB) was the first major central bank to start lowering interest rates and that the Bank of England had also started lowering interest rates, emphasized that the ECB would continue to lower interest rates in the second half of this year. The following was emphasized in the Dun & Bradstreet “Global Economic Outlook Report”; “The good start to the year in Europe continued in the second quarter. GDP grew by 0.3 percent in the EU in the second quarter, as it did in the first quarter. While Spain, France and Ireland led growth in the EU, the German economy contracted and Europe’s largest market came to the brink of recession. We expect the loosening of political regulations in the UK and Western Europe to support recovery in the second half of this year.”
Fed’s interest rate cuts will help emerging economies
Dun & Bradstreet, whose activities are part of the CRIF cluster in Turkey, stated in its “Global Economic Outlook Report” that growth in emerging economies is expected to continue in the second half of 2024, while drawing attention to the differentiation among emerging countries. The report states that “weaker growth in Brazil, Mexico, Poland and some parts of emerging Asia is expected to be offset by a reacceleration in parts of Latin America, such as Chile, Peru and Uruguay, where inflation is moderate. The central banks of valuable emerging economies began easing their monetary policies earlier than their counterparts in advanced economies this year. The continuation of tight monetary policy in the US makes it likely that the US dollar will be supported for now. However, this situation will start to ease as the FED cuts interest rates in the second half. Expectations that the FED will cut interest rates, including through a degree of easing in the strength of the US dollar, will provide a more supportive environment for emerging economies. “This will be good for the currencies of emerging economies, which have been depreciating in all regions, but the hardest hit region is Latin America.”
Turkey’s overall risk rating upgraded
Dun & Bradstreet also includes expectations for countries in its “Global Economic Outlook Report”. Dun & Bradstreet shares that it has increased Turkey’s general risk rating due to the improvement in credit and political environments, and includes the following information about Turkey; “The positive course in the economy continues with the continuation of orthodox monetary and fiscal policies. The Turkish Lira is gaining stability, which leads to a decrease in foreign exchange risk and a strengthening of the banking system. We have also increased the market potential risk rating with investors returning to the capital market, considering the stable lira and improving expectations.”
