Medium Term Program roadmap, US employment and first unemployment data: What’s happening in the markets?
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Medium Term Program roadmap, US employment and first unemployment data: What’s happening in the markets?

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Investing.com – U.S. stock futures are mostly sideways ahead of a new batch of labor market data due this week that could have an impact on the Fed’s interest rate decision. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to sell Nippon Steel’s largest steelmaker, U.S. Steel ( X) will reportedly block the takeover. The Wall Street Journal reported that Verizon is in talks to buy Frontier Communications. Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced the Medium Term Program.

1. Futures processes in horizontal course

U.S. stock futures were unchanged as investors braced for new labor market data that could influence the Fed’s next monetary policy decision.

Dow0.1%, S&P 500increased by 0.1% and Nasdaq 100remained mostly unchanged.

Indicator S&P 500and technology loaded Nasdaq CompositeYesterday, it finished a volatile process session in the red. 30 shares Dow Jones Industrial Averageclosed with an increase.

The number of open jobs in the U.S. fell to a 3.5-year low in July, the latest sign of a gradual slowdown in American labor demand. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that the employment picture could be “disrupted” if interest rates remain high for much longer.

The figures and Bostic’s comments further bolstered expectations that the Fed will move to cut interest rates at its meeting later this month.

On the other hand, Nvidia, which had already experienced a sharp decline at the beginning of the week ( NVDA) shares fell 1.7%. Before the trading day was out, the artificial intelligence giant denied a report that it had received a subpoena from the U.S. Justice Department as part of an investigation into potential antitrust practices.

2. Special section employment report and unemployment claims

Investors will have another look at the U.S. employment market with the August employment report.

Both a measure of private employment ADP National Employment Reportand weekly initial unemployment claimsnumbers will be published.

Previous ADP data showed private employment rose much less than expected in July, while the number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims in the week ending Aug. 24 was in line with expectations, at 231,000.

Although these data will be closely followed by the markets, the most valuable data of the week will be the more comprehensive data to be announced by the Labor Statistics Office of the Ministry of Labor on Friday. nonfarm employmentthere will be a report.

Economists estimate the U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs last month, up from 114,000 the month before. The July total, which fell far short of expectations, led to a broader decline in markets as investors fretted about the possibility of the U.S. slipping into recession.

3. Biden prepares to block Nippon Steel-US Steel deal

US President Joe Biden is set to block a $14.9 billion takeover bid by Japan’s Nippon Steel for US Steel, citing national security concerns.

According to sources familiar with the matter, Biden’s decision will be announced in the coming days, the Financial Times said. A government panel responsible for overseeing foreign investment told Nippon Steel that national security concerns were not met.

Biden, as well as Vice President and current Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, have previously voiced opposition to the deal. Harris’ Republican rival for the White House, Donald Trump, also opposed the takeover.

U.S. Steel said failure to complete the deal could put thousands of unionized U.S. jobs at risk and force the closure of some steel mills. U.S. Steel shares fell more than 17% yesterday.

4. Verizon , Frontier Communications ( FTRCQ) is negotiating to buy

According to the Wall Street Journal, Verizon ( VZ), Frontier Communications ( FYBR) is in talks to acquire the company, hinting at a deal that will help strengthen the company’s fiber network.

WSJ, citing people with knowledge of the matter, said the purchase announcement could be made this week.

The value of the agreement was not specified in the news. Frontier Communications, which provides broadband services in 25 US states and emerged from bankruptcy in 2021, had a market value of $7 billion as of Tuesday’s closing.

Following the WSJ report, Frontier shares gained about 38%, while Verizon’s stock price fell more than 3%.

5. Crude oil is on the rise

Crude oil prices rose after falling to their lowest levels in months on reports that major producers may delay increasing production and on falling U.S. inventories.

BrentThe contract rose 0.6% to $73.15 after falling to its lowest close since June 27, 2023, in the previous session. US crude oilFutures (WTI) rose 0.6% to $69.61 a barrel yesterday after falling to its lowest close since Dec. 11.

The American Petroleum Institute had shown U.S. crude oil production fell by 7.431 million barrels last week, more than expected for a 1 million barrel drop.

According to Reuters, citing sources yesterday, OPEC+ is discussing postponing the oil production increase planned to begin in October.

Inflation target increased in the 6th Medium Term Program, growth claim decreased

The new Medium Term Program (MTP), which determines the roadmap for the economy for the next three years, was announced by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz. The program included significant revisions in inflation and growth targets.

In the new OVP, for the year 2024 inflationThe target was revised from 33 percent to 41.5 percent, while the target for 2025, which was 15.2 percent, was increased to 17.5 percent.

The inflation target for 2026 was raised from 8.5 percent to 9.7 percent. The aim is to gradually reduce inflation to single digits.

2024 growthWhile the assumption was lowered from 4 percent to 3.5 percent, the growth expectation for 2025, which was 4.5 percent, was reduced to 4 percent.

In the program Dollar/TLThe revisions regarding parity also drew attention. The assumption determined as 36.8 for 2024 was reduced to 33.2. For 2025, it was revised from 43.9 to 42.

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