Forex – Morgan Stanley(NYSE: MS), due to increasing demand challenges while supply abundance continues Brentcut its crude oil price forecast for the second time in as many weeks.
According to analysts including Martijn Rats, the global indicator will average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter. This figure compares with the previous forecast of $80 in mid-October and December and $85 announced last month.
Ongoing concerns about weakening Chinese demand, combined with signals that the U.S. economy could be slowing, sent Brent recently to its lowest close since late 2021.
At the same time, the production glut continues, forcing OPEC+ to postpone its own plan to ease production curbs. “The recent trajectory of oil prices is similar to other periods when demand has weakened significantly,” Rats and colleagues wrote in a Sept. 9 report.
Time differences – price comparisons across the futures curve – suggest “recession-like inventory buildup” is imminent, but they said it was too early to make that the bank’s base case.
Morgan Stanley’s rethinking of the outlook was echoed by concerns at other major banks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last month changed its view, while Citigroup Inc. recently said the market appeared oversupplied and prices could average $60 a barrel in 2025 unless OPEC+ cuts deeper.
